Number theory: Tracking the dramatic temperature changes India saw through 2022 | Latest News India - Hindustan Times
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Number theory: Tracking the dramatic temperature changes India saw through 2022

Dec 19, 2022 01:46 PM IST

To be sure, while 2022 is in the top 20% coldest years by maximum temperature, it ends up on the warmer half when we look at the minimum temperature.

Parts of northwest India have finally started experiencing a chill that is generally associated with this time of the year. In the 24 hours leading to Sunday morning, parts of Punjab and Rajasthan saw what is described by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) as “cold wave conditions”. Conditions were similar in places such as Delhi, west Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, which saw the minimum temperature drop to 3-8 degrees Celsius.

Hazy weather over the skyline as sun sets in the backdrop over Vihar Lake in Mumbai.(HT file) PREMIUM
Hazy weather over the skyline as sun sets in the backdrop over Vihar Lake in Mumbai.(HT file)

Which is why it may appear counter intuitive right now to look at how warm 2022 was for India. However, it’s relevance is highlighted if we look at the weather in the region through early December – where it has been generally warming than usual. In other words, reports of a cold wave at this time of the year are as frequent this year as it generally is otherwise. Moreover, the answer to how hot 2022 has been is not what one would expect in a warmer-than-usual December and after a heat wave that made global news. If this appears too dramatic, here are four charts that argue that India’s temperature in 2022 was exactly that.

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Going by maximum temperature, 2022 has been rather cold for India

When someone wants to look at how hot it has been in India this year, the obvious way to do so would be to look at the maximum temperature readings. This shows an interesting fact for what appeared to be a hot year. The average maximum for India this year (up to December 17) is 30.69°C, 0.32°C below the average for the 1981-2010 period (considered the “normal” of a region). This places 2022 as the 13th coldest year since 1951 by maximum temperature.

To be sure, while 2022 is in the top 20% coldest years by maximum temperature, it ends up on the warmer half when we look at the minimum temperature. The average night-time temperature of India in 2022 so far is 19.34°C, 0.14°C warmer than the normal, and the 30th hottest for the January 1-December 18 interval (data on minimum temperature is available earlier than the maximum).

...And how daily fluctuations in temperature were very dramatic

To be sure, the mercury climbing quickly earlier in the year is not the only time Delhi’s temperature changed quickly. After being stuck at slightly above 10°C for the most of December, Delhi’s minimum temperature dropped to 7-8°C in a single day on December 15. A long-term analysis shows that 2022 was a year of sharp fluctuations in daily temperature for both Delhi and the India average.

To be sure, while this was the case for Delhi with both maximum and minimum temperature, this was true for only the average maximum for India.

The fluctuation in India’s daily maximum on 80 days this year was among the top 20% daily fluctuations since 1951. More days have seen such daily fluctuations in only 12 other years. For Delhi, 91 daily fluctuations this year (4th highest number for any year) made it to the top 20% daily maximum fluctuations and 76 days (19th highest for any year) to the top 20% daily minimum fluctuations.

Colder than normal average may not also mean the year was cold for everyone

While patterns in Delhi’s weather explain the pattern in the India average over time, they do not explain how the weather varied geographically over India. For example, although the average maximum for India is less than normal in 2022, 16 of 30 states and Union territories (UTs) for which this calculation is possible have actually experienced a hotter than normal 2022 even by maximum temperature. According to the 2011 census (projections for recent years lump north-eastern states together, which have not experienced 2022 in the same way), these 16 jurisdictions account for 58% of India’s population. For 42% of India’s population, 2022 was among the top 20 hottest years since 1951, and for 19%, it was among the top 10 hottest years by maximum temperature.

As the average minimum suggests, night-time temperatures were higher than normal almost everywhere, with only the degree of warming varying over different regions. For almost 2/3rd Indians, 2022 was among the top 10 hottest years by minimum temperature.

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  • ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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    Abhishek Jha is a data journalist. He analyses public data for finding news, with a focus on the environment, Indian politics and economy, and Covid-19.

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