Chronicling Delhi’s debate on Beijing - Hindustan Times
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Chronicling Delhi’s debate on Beijing

Dec 21, 2022 07:35 AM IST

China is India’s biggest strategic challenge. On balance, the government is right in fusing quiet capacity-building with public caution

The India-China clash in Tawang has sharpened the debate on China in Delhi. Based on conversations with those familiar with official thinking on one side, and the political Opposition and critics on the other, here is a paraphrased, somewhat simplified, version of the best arguments in this debate.

The Tawang clash has sharpened the debate on China in Delhi. (Shutterstock) PREMIUM
The Tawang clash has sharpened the debate on China in Delhi. (Shutterstock)

The government’s broad view is the following. Xi Jinping’s China is the most significant external constraint on India’s security and ambitions. With border incursions, Beijing has buried the post-1988 detente. China’s effort to take over contested land, ties with Pakistan, backing for unfriendly dispensations in South Asia, incursions in the Indian Ocean, aggression in the Indo-Pacific, and efforts to curtail India’s ambitions will only grow.

All of it will need to be contested. But while doing so, remember the current power asymmetry between Delhi and Beijing. China is richer, stronger and more capable. India will build border infrastructure, display military muscle as it did in Galwan and Tawang, hold the line at the border and resist China’s intrusions. India will seek military advantage where possible and force Chinese concessions, like the army did by forcing China to back off from Pangong Tso after its actions in the Kailash range. But this is not the time to be unnecessarily confrontational in public or risk escalation on the ground. Instead, defend your ground, exploit vulnerabilities, lay out diplomatic redlines, and nurture public opinion without allowing it to rush policy.

China, policymakers believe, is a long-term challenge. India has lost time; it must build its military and economic capabilities rapidly. Policy initiatives on domestic manufacturing, semiconductors, emerging tech, data sovereignty, foreign investment, defence indigenisation already have a strong China subtext but need some time to show results. India is deepening partnerships with the West, participating in countervailing coalitions, securing the seas, shaping the world’s view on China, exploiting geopolitical fault lines, while retaining diplomatic autonomy. Once the Indian economy bridges the relative power gap with China, in say a decade, the costs for Beijing in challenging Indian interests will go up. Till then, manage China, using a mix of deterrence, defence, deception, bandwagoning, and, in rare contexts, calibrated offensive measures.

The critics have a different view.

The government isn’t being honest about China. The Prime Minister is yet to make a comprehensive statement on one of India’s most serious (and most expensive) national security crises in decades. His ambiguous statements haven’t helped. India slipped when it allowed the Chinese incursions in the spring of 2020 and then underplayed it. There hasn’t been a proper explanation for Galwan. India gave up its advantage in the Kailash range too quickly without using it to resolve all friction points. Buffer zones have eroded India’s patrolling rights and led to the ceding of territory. China has displayed an ability to hurt India as and when it chooses, with impunity. Delhi has also been opaque about the eastern sector. India, critics then suggest, is militarily vulnerable. The economy isn’t doing as well as claimed. India’s asymmetry with China is growing. Despite claims that ties aren’t normal, trade has shot up. India must deploy its offensive capabilities, attain military advantage on the ground, and use its traditional leverage in other theatres such as Tibet.

At this point, critics diverge — some believe that India hasn’t gone far enough in its ties with the West, others believe that India’s ties with the United States (US) are responsible for the friction with China, and yet others seek to amplify India’s differences with both China and the US without quite offering any geopolitical road map.

In this debate, there is an underlying political current. The Opposition ecosystem claims that the government is underplaying the China challenge because facts will expose the PM’s claims of being a strong leader. The government ecosystem believes critics are deliberately egging on the government, hoping it will face a setback from the Chinese because domestically they have been incapable of weakening the regime. But policymakers remember 1962. Nehru’s claims and moves weren’t backed by capabilities and India is still paying a price; Delhi will get the sequence right this time.

On balance, while critics have a point on some tactical issues, the government has a stronger and more coherent case strategically.

To be sure, India has to be constantly vigilant about the everyday security threat posed by Beijing and strengthen its defences. It cannot let China dictate the reality on the border and play catch-up. And it must invest all its energies in both operational readiness and capacity building across domains. But, on the basis of information only it possesses, the State must carefully weigh risks. Military or diplomatic overreach, even as the country faces serious economic, developmental, military, security and institutional deficits, in the face of a stronger adversary, amid an uncertain global strategic and economic climate, isn’t wise.

The more tricky question is of transparency. While public opinion can be an enabler, it can also be a trap. But that is in the nature of democracies. India is at a strange moment. Both the government and citizens know that China is India’s biggest challenge, but the political leadership isn’t able to honestly speak to citizens about it.

This is because any honest conversation will require an evaluation of the past (the government can embarrass the Opposition with the past blunders, but this hurts the Indian State’s negotiating position and so it is being responsible by not doing so). It will require an acknowledgment of short-term vulnerabilities and long-term possibilities. It may reduce space for diplomatic manoeuvre where action and ambiguity often have to coexist. And it will require sharing India’s operational strengths and moves which no State will want to reveal to its adversaries.

The PM may want to consider talking to select Opposition leaders privately, and then talk to citizens publicly about China. But only he can judge how much to say and when, in a way that balances national security and democratic accountability. In return for that trust, the PM must secure India’s present and future.

The views expressed are personal

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  • ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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    Prashant Jha is the Washington DC-based US correspondent of Hindustan Times. He is also the editor of HT Premium. Jha has earlier served as editor-views and national political editor/bureau chief of the paper. He is the author of How the BJP Wins: Inside India's Greatest Election Machine and Battles of the New Republic: A Contemporary History of Nepal.

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